July is the time of the year when the nights are warmer, and we make use of that by staying out late on the terrace. One of the benefits of living in Central Oregon is that there are few cities, so the skies are dark and our entire area is considered one of the best for stargazing – as reflected by a number of research observatories located here. While we are talking every year to be more systematic about it (I have bought some books and stargazing guides) – we are again just sitting there, finding the few constellations we know and simply enjoy the sheer endless number of objects. In August there will be an additional incentive since usually during that month there is a good frequency of shooting starts related to meteor interactions with the earth atmosphere. One interesting element of stargazing is that one can see the space station fly by and also satellites. The space station is a pretty large object and has been up and flying since 1998. We watched it with our kids many times. Last night sitting out there I observed that the frequency of fast flying objects high up in the sky is actually very high. Sitting there and scanning the sky I could find one within a minute or less. While I am not keeping track of my observations on any given night and for sure not year over year it appeared to me as if that was for sure way more frequent than in prior years. Curious, now I went and searched for some information. Along the way I discovered quite a few surprises for myself. The number of satellites that orbit the earth has almost increased tenfold since 2019 from roughly 2,000 to over 18,000 in 2026. That certainly correlates with my observation or suspicion. The US has the most satellites flying in orbit – over 11,400, out of which 10,720 are associated with Space X Starlink. The number of satellites is growing fast and if all plans of the communications and networking companies across the world materialize as planned, people are expecting to have approximately 100,000 satellites in orbit by 2030. That would be another more than fivefold increase. One of the enabling elements of this development is that the cost for building and launching satellites decreases with the volume – currently the former at about $100,000 and the latter in shared launching arrangements at about $50,000. This price tag is now within reach of larger universities.
The outlook then for my stargazing adventures is positive – more and more fast-moving objects will be seen in the night sky. It is estimated that with the naked eye one can see between 2500 to 3000 stars from a location on earth. So, between those and the satellites zipping by it won’t get boring ever!
(Side note: Space X is clearly covering the Earth with a vast network of satellites – that would be the second undertaking by Elan Musk after the Tesla charger network in the US, where his business venues are determined and comprehensive when tackling a new service. More is to come – Space X asked for approval of another 15000 satellites for enhanced cell phone coverage and higher bandwidth)